Tue. Dec 1st, 2020
N.Y.C. says 3 percent of its coronavirus tests reveal infections. Why does the state disagree?


A three % constructive fee in coronavirus testing is a important threshold for New York City. It is the stage at which the mayor shut down public colleges final week. The governor says that a sustained three % degree in the city will end result in banning indoor dining, closing gyms and hair salons, and putting a 25-individual cap on attendance at homes of worship even as the holidays method.

But as essential as that three % fee is, it looks the city and the state cannot agree on no matter whether it has been reached.

That conflict has played out above the previous week, with Mayor Bill de Blasio saying three % has been breached, whilst Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo explained the constructive check fee was properly under that. Every single relies on his personal statistics, which are compiled and reported in distinctive methods. And, it turns out, the state and city also cannot agree on which exams to incorporate in the calculation.

The discrepancy can be striking: On Saturday, for instance, the city explained its 7-day regular was three.eleven %. Mr. Cuomo’s workplace, nonetheless, place the city’s fee at additional than half a stage decrease, at two.54 %.

It is the most current discordant message among two rivals that has played out above the total pandemic, including a degree of dysfunction and confusion to the response.

The trigger of the discrepancy lies in each the exams that are integrated and the time frame in which statistics are reported. The state treats a new situation as arising on the day the check end result comes in. The city dates every single new situation to when the sample was presented.

So if an contaminated individual is examined on Monday and the end result is reported to the overall health authorities on Wednesday, the state would incorporate the constructive check in Wednesday’s tally of new situations, whilst the city would include it to Monday’s column.

Due to the fact the three % threshold is primarily based on a 7-day rolling regular, it issues which day a new situation is registered.

An additional issue: antigen exams, whilst normally speedier, are much less probably to detect an infection in folks with a reduced viral load. New York State involves antigen check effects in its official metrics. The city does not. It relies only on the additional delicate check recognized as a polymerase chain response. That is why the state — which is counting each antigen and P.C.R. exams — could have a increased tally for all round situations in New York City but a decrease percentage of positives.

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